Snow – finally ?

Posted on January 11, 2012 by John Allin

Just how pitiful has winter been this year? Amtrak passengers from New York City — a notoriously blasé bunch — were positively delighted to see snow flurries falling at Union Station yesterday (Jan. 9). And barely any snow fell. Washington’s Dulles International Airport saw 0.5 inches (1.27 centimeters) yesterday, pushing its total since the summer to just over 1 inch.

Things are uncharacteristically balmy in Chicago too, where people are walking around in flip-flops, according to one news report.
People across the country are wondering: Where is winter? As OurAmazingPlanet previously reported, the nation has been snow poor this winter. Last year at this time, the Deep South was still a-buzz after an unusually big snowfall, and the Northeast was still reeling from the big post-Christmas blizzard. But this year, climate patterns have conspired to make winter a snow strikeout for much of the nation.

Today (Jan. 10), just 14.4 percent of the United States is covered by snow. On this day in 2011, 61.7 percent of the country had snow on the ground, according to the U.S. National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center in Minnesota. Hardly anyone got the gift of a White Christmas, and on New Year’s Day just 19.8 percent of the country had snow on the ground. The paucity of snow hasn’t been for a lack of storms, as a series of them have rolled across the country — the air has simply not been cold enough to turn precipitation to snow.

Parts of the West and — oddly — Texas are among the few places that have seen snow this winter.

Year to year

Typically snowy cities in the Midwest and Northeast aren’t snowy this year because they aren’t cold. A January heat wave set at least 1,500 daily record high temperatures from January 2-8, reported Climate Central. On Jan. 5, Rapid City, S.D., had a high of 73 degrees Fahrenheit (23 degrees Celsius). That was warmer than Miami, which hit 69 F (20.5 C) on the same day. Mitchell, S.D., hit 68 F (20 C), a record high for the month of January.

Temperatures this time of year in the East Coast are partially driven by a climate pattern of opposing atmospheric pressures in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, called the Arctic Oscillation, Jake Crouch, a climatologist at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., told OurAmazingPlanet. The past two winters, the Arctic Oscillation, or AO, was mostly in a record-strength negative phase. This year, the AO has been in a positive phase.

“When the AO is positive, the Eastern Seaboard, Midwest and Southeast tend to have warmer-than-average temperatures,” Crouch said.

Snow should finally show up this week. An inch of snow is expected across the Midwest, and heavy lake-effect snow could hit some cities as a blast of cold air moves east, the Weather Channel has forecast. That same cold air could create wintry conditions in New England by the week’s end. A light snow is also expected across the Rocky Mountains, and Glacier National Park in Montana is under a winter storm warning, with up to 7 inches (17.8 cm) of snow forecast.

Snowy surprises

Even though much of the nation is missing snow, the 2011 winter has given a few fleeting surprises. A surprisingly early snowstorm smacked the East Coast on Halloween, knocking out power to thousands in Connecticut. New York’s Central Park recorded 2.9 inches of snow (7.6 cm), the first time since record-keeping began in 1869 that an inch or more of snow has been recorded there during the month of October, according to the National Weather Service.

A week before, that same weather system created wild weather in Denver. The Colorado capital saw temperatures of 80 degrees F (27 degrees C) Oct. 24, a record for the day in Denver. Snow and freezing temperatures came in with the winter system the next day. It wasn’t much, but Nov. 28, Alabama saw a November snowfall for the first time in 35 years. The southern snow was caused by a “cold bubble” that settled over the region.

Perhaps the biggest surprise this winter has been Midland, Tex. The west Texas town saw its biggest snowfall ever yesterday with 10.5 inches (26.7 cm). Midland could surpass its snowiest season on record, the winter of 1946-47, which saw 13.9 inches (35 cm) of snow. Alaska hasn’t wanted for snow either. From Dec. 17 to Jan. 6, 14.5 feet (4.4 meters) of snow has fallen in Cordova, Alaska. Cordova could see another 10 to 15 inches (25 to 38 cm) of snow over the next 36 hours.

The above is from livescience.com…….

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More Lake Effect coming – maybe….

Posted on January 10, 2012 by John Allin

Lake Effect arrives in the north east – and not a moment too soon. Has winter finally arrived? Let’s hope so.

Contractors are now wondering about whether or not this season is a bust. Not to fear – there are still three months left of potentially hefty snowfalls. With the arctic air finally breaking away and headed south – the next few weeks might be one of those “be careful what you wish for” times.

I’ve seen this before…..and, sort of glad it waited until after the holidays.

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Winter is not over – just a bit late in arriving

Posted on January 6, 2012 by John Allin

Rather than just a west to east jet stream across North America with little disturbances in it like we had during much of December, we now have much larger southward dips and northward bulges. (Think of that high school physics experiment you did with a jump rope.)

These longer wave lengths may soon help spin up larger storms and bigger extremes in temperature for a longer duration. While there is more to defining the weather than just the presence of a La Nina or El Nino, during most of the fall through December a weak La Nina was present.
According to AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, “Indications are the Southern Oscillation is now going neutral and the shift is fairly dramatic.” The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) measures fluctuations in southern Pacific sea surface temperatures. Fluctuations in sea surface temperatures have been studied rather intensely over the past several decades.

A warm anomaly is an El Nino, while a cold anomaly is a La Nina.

Strong anomalies can have a profound effect on the jet stream over the northern Pacific, which in turn can greatly impact the jet stream and weather patterns in North America and throughout the globe. “A neutral ENSO or even a weak El Nino signature if it develops could result in more of an average storm pattern across the U.S and southern Canada,” Margusity said.

“Even a normal second half of the winter in terms of storms could seem quite dramatic compared to the lame first part of the winter,” Margusity added.
According to Chief AccuWeather Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, who keeps an eye on temperatures high in the atmosphere for potential changes down the road, “There is another round of warming going on in the stratosphere the over western Canada.” Warming in this area tends to be a signature for colder weather in the Eastern states 10 to 14 days later. There was some warming prior to the cold shot that recently invaded the East.

“This could be a signature for another cold wave from the Upper Midwest to the Eastern states later next week,” Abrams said.

Meanwhile, the lack of the Greenland Block has kept cold air at bay near the North Pole. The Greenland Block is a northward bulge in the jet stream that develops near Greenland and creates a subsequent dip in the jet stream over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. This dip drives cold air into eastern North America and can provide necessary energy for major nor’easters.

Current meteorological skill only provides insight into changes in this parameter about two weeks in advance. And, there is no sign of this changing over the next couple of weeks. According to Long Range AccuWeather Expert Paul Pastelok, “Another parameter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) seems to be switching away from where it was during most of the fall and in December.”

The AO roughly measures the magnitude of cold air in the Arctic region. When this is value is positive, the cold air is locked up in the region and mid-latitudes tend to have near- to above-average temperatures. “When it goes negative like we are seeing now, the cold air is soon released from the Arctic and drives southward into parts of the U.S.,” Pastelok said.

Above is compiled from AccuWeather.com

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Lifes Lessons……

Posted on December 30, 2011 by John Allin

Happy New Year to all.

As we approach yet another mid-season holiday, I find that repeating my post from last year is appropriate…..

As we come to the end of 2011, and begin yet a new year again – I think it is time to reflect on the joys of life. Regardless of your thoughts and feelings about any one person, thing, or event of the past year – I believe some truths tie us all together. To that end, below are some of “Life’s Lessons”. These are not original thoughts of my own, but from someone else – however, that does not make the list any less significant to any human being.

Life’s Lessons…….

1. Life isn’t fair, but it’s still good.
2. When in doubt, just take the next small step.
3. Life is too short to waste time hating anyone.
4. Your job won’t take care of you when you are sick. Your friends and parents will. Stay in touch.
5. Pay off your credit cards every month.
6. You don’t have to win every argument. Agree to disagree.
7. Cry with someone. It’s more healing than crying alone.
8. It’s OK to get angry with God. He can take it.
9. Save for retirement starting with your first paycheck.
10. When it comes to chocolate, resistance is futile.
11. Make peace with your past so it won’t screw up the present.
12. It’s OK to let your children see you cry.
13. Don’t compare your life to others. You have no idea what their journey is all about.
14. If a relationship has to be a secret, you shouldn’t be in it.
15. Everything can change in the blink of an eye. But don’t worry; God never blinks.
16. Take a deep breath. It calms the mind.
17. Get rid of anything that isn’t useful, beautiful or joyful.
18. Whatever doesn’t kill you really does make you stronger.
19. It’s never too late to have a happy childhood. But the second one is up to you and no one else.
20. When it comes to going after what you love in life, don’t take no for an answer.
21. Burn the candles, use the nice sheets, wear the fancy lingerie. Don’t save it for a special occasion. Today is special.
22. Over prepare, then go with the flow.
23. Be eccentric now. Don’t wait for old age to wear purple.
24. The most important sex organ is the brain.
25. No one is in charge of your happiness but you.
26. Frame every so-called disaster with these words ‘In five years, will this matter?’
27. Always choose life.
28. Forgive everyone everything.
29. What other people think of you is none of your business.
30. Time heals almost everything. Give time time.
31. However good or bad a situation is, it will change.
32. Don’t take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
33. Believe in miracles.
34. God loves you because of who God is, not because of anything you did or didn’t do.
35. Don’t audit life. Show up and make the most of it now.
36. Growing old beats the alternative — dying young.
37. Your children get only one childhood.
38. All that truly matters in the end is that you loved.
39. Get outside every day. Miracles are waiting everywhere.
40. If we all threw our problems in a pile and saw everyone else’s, we’d grab ours back.
41. Envy is a waste of time. You already have all you need.
42. The best is yet to come…
43. No matter how you feel, get up, dress up and show up.
44. Yield.
45. Life isn’t tied with a bow, but it’s still a gift.”

Lifes’ Lessons, Originally written by Regina Brett, 90 years old, from Cleveland, Ohio .

Boy…… ain’t all of them the truth…….

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Holiday time…….

Posted on December 20, 2011 by John Allin

At this time, each year – most folks, and families, thoughts turn to the holiday season. Mine do too – however, “Christmas” for me (over the years) has not had the same allure as it does for most folks. I never got depressed about the holiday but also never really got excited about it either. In Erie, PA where it snows (A LOT), we were always looking to the weather report to see if we could enjoy Christmas or wonder if we could find enough drivers to satisfy the needs of our customers.

Two vivid memories of Christmas Day stick out.

One Christmas morning we got up to find well over a foot of snow. This was back in the 80’s when I only had 8 or 10 trucks plowing and 50% of our customer base was residential. Most of our commercial accounts were closed Christmas morning, so that was not a cause for concern. We let our drivers stay home for the morning so they could be with family. I went out to do the residential accounts. At one home I plowed the driveway knowing full well the residents couldn’t really go anywhere because the streets had yet to be plowed. The homeowner waved me into the house and gave me a bottle of wine to take with me as a Christmas present for coming out on such a nasty morning. They thanked me over and over because they ‘had to go to church’. I tried to explain God would understand given the conditions, if they missed church this morning. I asked them not to try it. Off I went to plow some more driveways. An hour or so later – I passed back by their house and saw the car stuck at the entrance to the driveway (abandoned), half on the road and half in the driveway. I drove on amazed at the abject stupidity of some who really, actually believe they “need to go somewhere” when the conditions are like that.

The other Christmas I remember is my two children (late teens by that time) coming to my home for Christmas morning. They were at our home for about an hour and it started to snow – hard. Without any provocation, they finished up what we were doing and they proceeded to leave to return to their home and their mother. They knew Peggy and I would be leaving shortly for the office to begin the process of servicing others instead of spending Christmas with our family. When they left I found myself watching it snow and cursing my chosen profession. It still makes me sad to think back on that day, and how my children knew and understood what Dad did for a living – and accepted it without argument.

Going back over the years, it is apparent (to us) that we “missed” Christmas about 70% of the time.

Christmas is not a happy time for me – but, it’s getting better as we get further and further removed from the actual acts of plowing snow.

IF you are in a market where you know it is not going to snow on Christmas Day – thank your lucky stars, hug your family and rejoice in the time together.

It is likely I shall not post again until after the Holidays – so, Happy Hanukah – Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year to all.

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Do you still need a mailbox ?

Posted on December 16, 2011 by John Allin

The postal service effort to reduce costs can help snow contractors lower their costs too – AND speed up the “turn” in cash flow.

The USPS will no longer deliver first class mail in an expeditious manner in a short while. So, any invoicing you mail out will take longer to get into customer hands. Thus, the countdown to “net 30 days” will begin 3 or 4 or 5 days later than in the past. Hard pill to swallow when you are being slammed with storm after storm after storm, and employees or subs want to be paid timely…..not to mention the fuel bill or insurance payments coming due at the same time without regard to the USPS problems.

Ah…. So – maybe there is a solution. Now is the time to “go green”. Stop using paper for invoices. Save the trees. Email invoices. It’s not a hard thing to do. I have clients who have turned to the internet to get invoices into customer hands faster, easier and cheaper. Simply inquire (of existing customers) who the person is in charge of Accounts Payable – then call and request you be allowed to email them your invoices directly. In today’s technology driven age – it is hard to fathom someone saying “no” to this reasonable request. Then, the invoices get into the proper person’s hands immediately and not 4 or 5 days hence.

For any new customers – make it part of your proposal that your pricing is figured on being supplied with the email address of the A/P person, and your “policy” is to email invoices – so as to “go green” of course. Because your company is environmentally friendly, for sure (and you get your money 5 days quicker, which is an added bonus).

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Epilogue – to the three previous posts……

Posted on December 13, 2011 by John Allin

Is what happened in these posts “lowballing”? Or, is it that old school snowplowers are not adjusting to what is happening in the marketplace? Are they being overtaken by more nimble players? One begins to wonder if the guys who are whining about “lowballers” are not paying attention to what is happening in the world marketplace. Many, many contractors are looking for ways to adjust to the market conditions. Continuing to operate the same way today as was done 10 years ago, might be a fast track to being out of business.

A certain computer company was high end 20 years ago. Then along came competition with a better product at a considerably lower price. The big, giant computer company fought change. The competition began to innovate and find ways to lower their costs (and thus, lower pricing for those purchasing such products). Market share was lost and the big guy had to learn to adapt or perish.

Why is the snow industry any different? Those who brought snow pushers to the forefront of the industry 15 years ago were often branded “lowballers” by those who fought the change and continued using plow trucks with 8 foot straight blades. In fact, these snow contractors who embraced new thoughts, ideas and progressive methods had found a more efficient way to do the work and still make a profit. Are the “lowballers not making a profit? I would submit most are – and those who arbitrarily say they cannot be, might just be blind to the evidence smacking them in the face.

Think about it. Some contractors confronted with shrinking market share are whining about lowballers taking their business. Others are changing tactics and looking at how to attack sites in a different light, finding ways to “do more with less”. It’s possible these old school contractors are adapting with the changing times. It is also possible the snow industry is evolving and those contractors who can view customer locations in a different light and from a different perspective may be the ones who survive the current economic downturn.

Where do you fit in ???

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Another tale of woa……

Posted on December 11, 2011 by John Allin

I’ve been in the plowing business for 18 years. We’ve been plowing the Morningside Office complex on the corner of 11th and Vine for 9 years. Never increased their pricing the entire time. This past fall – some yahoo cut our price by a bunch and took the business away from us. I’ve been watching the site and one of the lots isn’t being plowed or salted. The walks along both highways are never cleared. When we had the site, the place was pristine and we never had any slip and fall complaints. I’ll wager people are falling down all over now. Lowballers are ruining the marketplace with their slipshod workmanship and underhanded pricing policies. I wish it was like it was back when I started in this business.

And, the flip side of the story….

When we started plowing the drugstore and restaurant at 11th and Vine, I was hoping we could secure the Office Park on the other corner. It would save us considerable windshield time because we would only have to drive across the street to service it. Achieving customer density in an area like this would significantly lower our overhead costs and allow us to grow. We noticed the walks along the streets at the office park were being cleared and deiced every inch or so of accumulation (not to mention all that work being necessary when the street plows pushed the snow up onto the walks after the storm was over). Great service, but not necessary since no-one walks on them and there is no city ordinance requiring them to be cleared – for good reason, from our observations. Plus, some of the lots are not being used due to the vacancies that are prevalent (as I can see from the “For Lease” signs on the corner).

When I approached the property management company about the site, I proposed changes in the scope of work to allow us to lower their total cost. We eliminated the sidewalk clearing along the streets, stopped plowing the lots where nobody parks, recommended changing the trigger to 2” from 1”, and not do any salting on weekends (when no offices were open). After we were awarded the site, I found out we lowered their cost by 20%. While I’m not thrilled to leave that much money on the table, I sure am happy we don’t have to send the crew down the street 5 miles to the next site because now we can just send them across the street.

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And now – from the other side of the coin……

Posted on December 7, 2011 by John Allin

As I begin executing our plan for growth, and look around the marketplace I see opportunity on every corner. I approached Creekside Mall after watching the incumbent plow the site last winter. He did an outstanding job with lots of equipment and trucks on the site. The snow was relocated after every storm over to the west side of the Fitness Center, next to the parking ramps. Massive piles of snow too. Plus, the sidewalk crews were all doing the work by hand and pushing the snow into the inner ring road after which the loader/pushers would take the snow away. The place looked great – but it surely appeared as though it was being over-serviced. We approached the Regional Manager for Creekside Malls nationwide and showed him pictures of the site in winter. We pointed out that 1/3 of the lots were not being used, and the entire parking lot where Circuit City had been located was vacant. The site looked great because it was bare pavement – including all the parking areas that were not being used. We made suggestions that plowing be curtailed in the unused parking areas, the snow on the walks be pushed towards the buildings onto the juniper plants (we explained how piling snow on these junipers would not damage the plant material). Pushing the snow that way would save considerable time by not having to come back and move the snow away again. We also proposed using 4-wheel drive Ventrac articulating tractors with power brooms to push the snow off the walks as that would reduce our labor crew by 2/3’s. Also, we could save them 20% on their deicing costs by pre-salting the lots. This would save us 35% on our material costs and we would pass on some of that savings to the customer. On top of this, we are piling the snow in those other unused areas of the parking lots instead of hauling the snow to the other side of the complex. Overall, we were able to reduce their total plowing/deicing costs by 25% and still keep our own gross margins at 60%. We look like hero’s for proposing alternatives to the “norm” and helping the customer lower their “spend”.

It was a win-win for everyone.

……(except the incumbent, of course)…..

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Tale of woe…..

Posted on December 4, 2011 by John Allin

Creekside Mall has been a customer of ours for 6 winters. We’ve been progressive, utilizing snow pushers, large loaders, site dedicated salt spreaders, an 8 man sidewalk crew and a half dozen plow trucks. Our service to this site has been outstanding and we have the end-of-season reports to prove it. We raised our original pricing at the contract renewal 3 year ago by only 2 percent – less than the cost of living. We have an outstanding rapport with the mall manager and the head of maintenance. We respond to every request and we give them the zero tolerance finished product they have received from us from day one. We have been loyal and we have repaired every bit of damage done, even if we were not certain we caused the problem. Our contract expired last summer and (given the economy); we did not request a price increase. Of course, they had to go “out to bid” but the head of maintenance assured us he didn’t expect any issues with renewal.

When we did not hear from anyone for 2 weeks after the bids were due – I called the mall managers office and was told the contract had been awarded to a competitor I didn’t know much about. When I spoke with the mall manager a couple days later I was told they were going to pay 25% less than the did with us. Obviously, I got zinged by a lowballer – and I’m very angry about it. Now – Lowballers hurt our business and make us all look like crooks.

…..to be continued……

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